Brexit 'deal agreed' - But is it a good deal for the UK?

This is a voyage into the unknown which was always going to be complex and challenging. The terms of the divorce were never going to be amicable as Europe cannot be seen to make it easy for the UK as they will clearly want to discourage other European nations from going down a similar road

Source: European Union Experts

As a member of the British public I am becoming increasingly frustrated by the constant messages coming out of Westminster and Brussels about Brexit. Like most people, I am not party to the Brexit negotiations, so I have to make do with the scraps of information that are constantly thrown at me through the media, which basically tell me nothing.  All we seem to be hearing is that ‘Britain has made concessions on this and concessions on that’. We hear today that the UK and EU have now agreed a deal for stage one of the negotiations, but how do we know if it is a good deal or not? Have the EU made any concessions? When I think of the Brexit negotiations I get the image of a vulnerable British rabbit encircled by 27 European wolves all waiting to pounce on every whimper that the rabbit makes, until it reaches a point where the rabbit is terrified into conceding for fear of being attacked by the wolves. What I want to know is where is the British Lion that will stand its ground, fight its corner and keep the wolves at bay?

At this moment in time, above everything what we need is strong leadership. You may not like Donald Trump or agree with his approach to politics or agree with his policies, however, there is no doubt that he is in charge and that he is not prepared to be messed around. Teresa May continually told us that she wanted to 'strengthen her hand' with Europe and so she called a 'snap' election. This must rate as one of the biggest misjudgements in British political history because, instead of strengthening her hand she ended up cutting one of them off!  With the hand that remained she had to hold out the begging bowl to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in order to secure a very slim overall Parliamentary majority. The European Union must have laughed its socks off in the knowledge that they would now be negotiating with a wounded Prime Minister, with limited power who faced opposition from all corners including her own party. Not exactly the strong leadership that we need, is it?

Source: Sheet Plant Association

Whether people voted remain or leave is now irrelevant, that debate and that ship has now sailed. There is no point in dwelling on this because on Thursday 23rd June 2016 51.9% of the British public decided to leave Europe, and at 11pm on Friday 29th March 2019 the UK will leave Europe. The triggering of Article 50 seemed to take forever as we were told that the UK wanted to be as ‘prepared’ as we could before giving formal notice to Europe that we would be parting ways. It took nearly nine months from the referendum before Article 50 was finally triggered on 29th March 2017, giving us two further years to ‘negotiate’ a divorce. This is a voyage into the unknown which was always going to be complex and challenging. The terms of the divorce were never going to be amicable as Europe cannot be seen to make it easy for the UK as they will clearly want to discourage other European nations from going down a similar road.

The economy and particularly trade are topics that continually arise as British industry tries to work out the impact of what Brexit will actually mean for imports/exports and to them and their business in a wider context. Again, the EU ‘dictated’ that the next stage of discussions (including trade) could not take place until we have dealt with three key issues; the rights of EU nationals living in the UK, the financial terms of the exit package and agreement of how to deal with the border between Northern and the Republic of Ireland. You would think with all of the UK concessions we have been hearing (which we have no real details about) that negotiations would have moved much quicker however, to the contrary, we are seeing headlines such as; ‘We can't go on like this': mood of resignation in EU as Brexit talks stutter’ in the Guardian (December 5th 2017) (Link). Within the article the current confusion and chaos around Brexit is summed up by a Finnish MEP; ‘the government’s weakness was 'a key question' for the EU. 'We are also in a very difficult position because it would not be in our interests to see the whole thing fall apart', 'At the same time … it’s not our duty to help the British government in a negotiation that is between them and us. The bottom line is that the May government is facing an impossible task', adding that promises made to British voters during the referendum campaign and before June’s snap election could not be kept. The government was in 'an ever-worsening, deteriorating cycle'.

It is a fact that there will be quite a number of years of ‘transition’ whether the UK strike a complete Brexit deal with the EU or not. It will take the UK and indeed European countries and their economies time to adjust as we get used to the reality of life without each other. Therefore, if we know and accept that there are some turbulent years ahead then the question arises of whether it is in the best interests of the UK to strike a deal with Europe that involves so many concessions that we are effectively still a European nation but without the ‘official membership’. There is plenty in the media about the implications of a ‘no deal scenario’ and yes, this would have serious implications.  In the Guardian (December 7th 2017) (Link) the House of Lords warn that a ‘no deal’ Brexit would be ‘the worst outcome possible’.  Well, maybe it would but at this point in time nobody really knows. What I would like to see and I’m sure many others would share this view, is a British Government that shows some fight, a British Government that stands up for Britain, a British Government than shows leadership and a British Government that provides confidence to the British people that they have a plan in whichever scenario plays out.  At present, all we see if confusion, discord and poor leadership which has reached a point where we have no idea what is going on. Sadly, this also seems to be the case for those negotiating Brexit on our behalf! What a sad state of affairs.

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Information/opinions posted on this site are the personal views of the author and should not be relied upon by any person or any third party without first seeking further professional advice

Why should we bother with Renewable Energy?

If you are hoping that in the future fuel costs will reach a peak and then start to reduce then I am afraid you are going to be bitterly disappointed. There may well be short term reductions, however it is inevitable that fuel costs will not only continue to rise, but rise significantly

Source: Business Standard

There is no shortage of media coverage in respect of the impact of global warming, climate change, energy conservation, sustainability, greenhouse gas emissions and so on........ Our understanding and concern about these issues will vary significantly from those who have a genuine concern about protecting the planet for future generations to those who’s work may be directly related to these issues, right through to those who know very little and even those who make a conscious choice to ignore them!  The problem however is that even if you are one of those who fall into the latter categories, it does not change the fact that you will be affected in exactly the same way as everyone else.  This is no more starkly demonstrated than in the increased cost of energy over recent years, which have soared to record levels.

Over the last two hundred years we have become dependent on fossil fuels such as gas, oil and coal, which has allowed us to develop our world at a staggering pace.  All of this development in terms of infrastructure, buildings and the like require large amount of energy, to heat, cool, ventilate, provide light and power etc.  If we are to maintain, or more likely increase the rate of development around the world then we also need to consider alternative ways of creating this energy. The problem with fossil fuels is that they are a depleting resource and at some point, in the future it will run out.  Now this is unlikely to happen in our generation or indeed generations in the foreseeable future, but one thing is for certain in that at some point, however far in the future, fossil fuels will become incredibly scarce and are likely to run out.  If you are under the impression that we should not be concerned about this now, as it will not have any major impact on us in our lifetime then think again!

Source: Daily Record

The problem with anything that is in short supply is that basic economical principles come into play.  Fossil fuels are a prime example of this. Remember they are a depleting resource and therefore a commodity in short supply.  The impact of this is that when demand is high (which it always is) and supply is limited (which it is), then market conditions allow energy providers to increase costs as they know that they are providing something that people actually need. The market then adjusts to these increased costs. The Guardian (November 2017) reports; ‘Gas and electricity companies have been the biggest culprits for raising prices over the past 20 years, according to an analysis published just a day after utility giant’s SSE and npower revealed plans for a mega-merger – prompting fears of yet more price rises. The research found that the cost of utilities has risen at triple the rate of inflation over the past two decades. The average rise in prices for a basket of goods between 1997 and 2016 was 50.7%, but utility bills went up by 139% – far outstripping the average 78% rise in weekly household income, which has gone up from £316 to £562 over the period’ (Link).

If you are hoping that in the future fuel costs will reach a peak and then start to reduce then I am afraid you are going to be bitterly disappointed. There may well be occasional short term reductions, however due to the economical principles described above it is inevitable that fuel cost will not only continue to rise, but rise significantly. Of course, the majority of articles that you will see in the media focus on the damage to the environment caused by greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon, from the burning of fossil fuels. This is something that we need to deal with immediately, however I would suggest that if you were to talk to most people on the high street they would be more concerned about the increase in fuel costs rather than the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The positive thing however, is that if we can create energy by using alternative renewable technologies then we can deal with both issues at the same time!

In future articles I will focus on the use of renewable technologies as a way of impacting on greenhouse gas emissions, however for the remainder of this article I will continue to demonstrate the financial effect of creating and using energy from fossil fuels, which is happening and impacting on us all right now!  The Committee on Fuel Poverty annual Report – October 2017 (Link), in its Executive Summary states; ‘The Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Fuel Poverty Statistics published in 2017 report the number of households in fuel poverty has increased from 2.38 million in 2014 to 2.50 million in 2015 (the statistics provide data on a two-year time lag). The average fuel poverty gap (this is the average additional amount that fuel-poor households need to spend to meet their energy needs, compared to the national median spend) has only fallen £18 per year from £371 to £353’.  The reference to fuel poverty is defined by Poverty.org.uk (Link) as: ‘Households are considered by the Government to be in 'fuel poverty' if they would have to spend more than 10% of their household income on fuel to keep their home in a 'satisfactory' condition. It is thus a measure which compares income with what the fuel costs 'should be' rather than what they actually are.  Whether a household is in fuel poverty or not is determined by the interaction of a number of factors, but the three obvious ones are: The cost of energy, the energy efficiency of the property (and therefore, the energy required to heat and power the home) and Household income’.

It is abundantly clear that many in the UK are continuing to suffer financial hardship as a result of increasing energy costs, and unless we can find alternative ways of creating and conserving our energy, then this situation is likely to become even more critical. Increased demand for a depleting resource is a recipe for disaster. We therefore have to introduce alternatives, which is now a necessity not a choice. If you are in one of those categories described at the beginning of this article who have not really paid much attention to global issues, perhaps it is now time to think very carefully about how you individually, and all of us collectively can save energy as well as also being open to consider retrofitting of  new renewable technologies. This will not only provide benefits from a financial viewpoint, which may not be immediate (although costs associated with enhancements is an article in its own right!), but also from an environmental viewpoint, where we can start to have a real impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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Information/opinions posted on this site are the personal views of the author and should not be relied upon by any person or any third party without first seeking further professional advice.